The start to the Orioles’ season showed their margin for error to repeat as American League East champions isn’t very wide.
The offense is struggling, and a few key members of the 2023 club are in slumps. The Orioles were nearly swept by the Kansas City Royals, and they lost in walk-off fashion on consecutive days to the Pittsburgh Pirates — two teams that were projected to finish below .500. And the New York Yankees, the preseason favorites to win the division according to public projection systems, are off to a hot start.
The Orioles’ postseason hopes could come down to just one series or one game or one at-bat. There is no advantage too insignificant or edge too small when the stakes are this large and the margin this slim.
Jackson Holliday was simply too good to keep in the minors, too talented to let external factors get in the way, and too important to this team to keep him away from it. The Orioles are promoting Holliday, baseball’s consensus No. 1 prospect, to make his MLB debut in Boston, two sources told The Baltimore Sun on Tuesday night.
Holliday, the top pick in the 2022 draft, isn’t just a top prospect the way Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson were before him. The 20-year-old infielder might be one of the best prospects in modern baseball history. His ascendance and dominance throughout the minor leagues put him in a class with legendary names such as Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr. and Bryce Harper.
He went from Low-A to Triple-A as a 19-year-old in 2023 — his first full season of professional baseball. He gained 10 pounds of muscle this offseason to improve his power. And he did everything he could to make the team out of spring training, posting impressive numbers on the field and acting like a big leaguer away from it.
But the organization decided he needed more time in Triple-A, citing his lack of experience against quality left-handed pitching and his position change to second base as reasons. Orioles general manager Mike Elias was heavily criticized for the decision after he said during the offseason that Holliday had a “very strong possibility” of breaking camp with the club.
The reasons Elias cited weren’t absurd. Holliday had struggled against left-handers, and he was still learning to play second base. But the economics of baseball and the incentives for the Orioles were clear: Leave Holliday in the minors through April 12, and the organization would likely gain another year of his services before he hits free agency — the 2030 season, to be exact. This tactic — known as service time manipulation — is one that Elias said was not a factor in his decision, calling the topic a “specter.”
Elias was accused of either lying during the winter about Holliday’s chances of making the team or manipulating his service time. This decision proves neither accusation was true.
Elias could have waited just three days, and the Orioles would have had their cake and ate it, too. In that scenario, Holliday would have been an Oriole for the vast majority of 2024, and by waiting, the club would have gained his 2030 season.
But winning the next three games — as well as the 149 after that — was more important. As it should be.
The Orioles are 6-4 through 10 games, and despite a solid offensive performance Tuesday in a 7-1 win over the Boston Red Sox, the bats have mostly been cold. After putting up 24 runs across their first two games, the Orioles are hitting just .207 and scoring 3.7 runs per game.
Mainstays during the past few seasons, such as Austin Hays and Ramón Urías, are struggling mightily. Hays is 2-for-26, and Urías is 2-for-22. It’s not just them, though. Aside from Ryan Mountcastle, Adley Rutschman and Colton Cowser, virtually every hitter is performing below expectation. Meanwhile, Holliday hit .333 with a 1.077 OPS in Triple-A — and went 4-for-10 with three extra-base hits against left-handers — as virtually every prospect in the Tides’ lineup put up video game numbers.
Holliday will probably play second base almost every day — maybe getting the occasional day off versus lefties — and the lack of production he’s replacing is perhaps why he’s joining the team now. Infielders Tony Kemp, Jordan Westburg, Jorge Mateo and Urías are a combined 13-for-76 (.171) with one home run. Take away Mateo, who is 5-for-14, the remaining members of the group have combined to go 8-for-62 (.129) at the plate.
Notably, since Holliday is being called up before April 13, he could earn the Orioles an additional draft pick as part of MLB’s prospect promotion incentive program. If he remains in the majors for the rest of the season, he would net Baltimore a pick at the end of the first round by either winning the AL Rookie of the Year Award in 2024 or placing top three in AL Most Valuable Player voting before qualifying for arbitration. Henderson was named the AL’s Rookie of the Year last season, and Baltimore was awarded the 32nd pick in this summer’s draft.
One of the reasons the decision to start Holliday in the minors was surprising to many was it felt counterintuitive. After ending the rebuild in 2022 and becoming a playoff team in 2023, the hope was that 2024 would be the season the Orioles became World Series contenders.
The acquisition of Corbin Burnes — an ace capable of putting the club over the top in the postseason — was the type of move a team going for it in 2024 makes. Burnes is a free agent at the end of the season, and it took two highly touted prospects to acquire him. But that is the cost of doing business when the goal is winning a championship, and Elias pushed his chips to the middle of the table by doing so.
It appeared he pulled some back when Holliday began in the minors, but that was wrong. The Orioles — and Elias — want to win now, and Holliday will help them do just that.