The cracks in the armor could be starting to show.
The Orioles are off to another hot start and look just as good — if not better — than the 101-win ballclub they were last year. Look no further than Baltimore opening its American League East slate with a 5-1 record and entering Thursday’s series finale against the New York Yankees in a tie for first place.
The Orioles boast one of the best young position player cores in baseball. Gunnar Henderson is tied for the most homers in MLB. Adley Rutschman is playing like Adley Rutschman. Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg are breaking out. And more are potentially on their way.
But if this season goes sideways, the lack of health and depth of the pitching staff could be why.
The past week showed how thin the current iteration of Baltimore’s bullpen can be, and Grayson Rodriguez’s shoulder injury is the latest in a series of ailments for the Orioles’ rotation through the early part of the season.
It’s unclear how severe Rodriguez’s shoulder inflammation is or how long the sophomore fireballer will be on the 15-day injured list. Manager Brandon Hyde said Rodriguez woke up Tuesday with more soreness than normal after he pitched 5 2/3 scoreless innings and tied his career high in pitches with 101 the night before.
The move to place him on the IL was “precautionary,” Hyde said, and the club is “staying optimistic.” It’s possible that is true and that Rodriguez will be back before May gives way to June.
“He’s a big part of our rotation,” Hyde said. “We need him this year.”
At the same time, though, there’s no way of spinning that “Grayson Rodriguez” and “injured list” and “shoulder inflammation” in the same sentence is anything other than bad news that could get worse.
Rodriguez isn’t just a valuable piece of Baltimore’s rotation; he’s one of the best pitchers in the major leagues. Since he was recalled from Triple-A last summer, Rodriguez ranks sixth among qualified MLB starters in ERA (2.93), tied for fourth in wins (nine) and seventh in Fielding Independent Pitching (3.01) — an ERA-equivalent stat based on what the pitcher has most control over (walks, strikeouts and home runs).
Any injury is additionally worrying for Rodriguez given he’s just 24 years old and his high-velocity fastball could make him more susceptible to injury. Since 2023, 10 starting pitchers have thrown 2,000 pitches and averaged 96 mph on their fastball. All but two — Seattle’s Luis Castillo and Miami’s Edward Cabrera — have either had Tommy John elbow reconstruction or are on the IL now with an arm injury.
Ten SPs have thrown 2,000+ pitches & averaged 96+ mph on fastballs since 2023:
Luis Castillo
Jesús Luzardo (on IL)
Gerrit Cole (IL)
Spencer Strider* (IL)
Sandy Alcántara* (IL)
Hunter Greene*
Grayson Rodriguez (IL)
Tyler Glasnow*
Bobby Miller (IL)
Edward Cabrera*TJ recipient
— Matt Weyrich (@ByMattWeyrich) May 1, 2024
“You’re hopeful, always,” Hyde said about Rodriguez. “Right now with pitching in general, you’re just hopeful. That’s why it’s tough to be too optimistic or be too pessimistic. You just don’t know what’s going to happen.”
More concerning than Rodriguez’s shoulder alone is the overall health of the Orioles’ pitching staff. Baltimore has done an excellent job over the past two seasons of remaining healthy. The organization likely doesn’t have a secret sauce that makes its arms less at risk of breaking down, although a significant portion of the team’s time and resources are put into recovery and managing workloads throughout a grueling 162-game season.
However, writ large, a team’s injuries year to year are fickle and more at the mercy of variance than anything else. Given that reality, the fact that the Orioles’ pitching staff is coming off a season in which it largely avoided major injuries could indicate regression in the health department.
In 2023, Baltimore had the fifth-fewest days on the IL with 913, according to the Associated Press. Of the five teams with fewer than 1,000 IL days, four made the playoffs, winning an average of 89 games.
Seven Orioles pitchers landed on the IL last season. Aside from closer Félix Bautista tearing his ulnar collateral ligament in late August and missing the remainder of the season, none of the IL stints were consequential. (John Means entered the season on the IL from his Tommy John elbow reconstruction in 2022 and didn’t return until September.)
Starter Kyle Bradish missed two weeks with a bruised foot in April. Left-handed relievers Cionel Pérez and Danny Coulombe both missed two weeks with minor arm fatigue in the summer. Austin Voth, Keegan Akin and Mychal Givens all missed significant time, but the trio of relievers struggled when they did pitch.
The following pitchers were among those who went all season without an injury: Kyle Gibson, Dean Kremer, Cole Irvin, Grayson Rodriguez, Yennier Cano and Mike Baumann.
Barely a month into the season, the Orioles are already at five pitchers who have spent time on the IL, four of whom are starters. Bradish (sprained UCL) and Means (delayed start because of elbow flare-up late last season) both opened the year on the IL and will return to the rotation this week. Means was activated Wednesday in Rodriguez’s place, while Bradish will likely start Thursday or Friday. (Bautista is on the 60-day IL and will miss the entire season.)
Tyler Wells, who didn’t get injured last season but ran out of gas in July, is on the shelf alongside Rodriguez with elbow inflammation. Pérez also missed a month with forearm soreness.
Baltimore had just enough depth to get by without Bradish or Means. If they stay healthy, they’ll have just enough to get by without Wells and Rodriguez. But each additional injury — and perhaps diminished performance from those who are returning — would be more difficult to overcome.
The health of the rotation might not be the biggest concern, though. The bullpen, while lights-out the past three nights, struggled for much of the last two weeks of April, including closer Craig Kimbrel blowing two saves in losses to the Oakland Athletics.
But the easiest way for this bullpen to improve is by the club having a fully healthy starting rotation, allowing pitchers such as Albert Suárez, Irvin and Wells to be relievers instead. Suárez’s stuff and Wells’ track record indicate they could be back-end bullpen arms, while Irvin’s already displayed success as a long reliever.
Given the club’s offensive prowess, it’s not a surprise that pitching could be what causes the Orioles to falter. On the flip side, though, if this team reaches its full potential, a healthy rotation and a strong bullpen could very well be why. Baltimore’s pitching staff let the team down in its AL Division Series sweep by the Texas Rangers, but the addition of Corbin Burnes, who pitched six more sturdy innings Wednesday, was expected to provide the Orioles a dominant ace to pitch a potential Game 1 or Game 7 of a playoff series.
Either way, pitching could be what makes or breaks the 2024 Orioles.