Brandon Hyde only has so many levers he can pull.
To get ex-closer Craig Kimbrel back on track, the Orioles manager has almost everything. He’s given Kimbrel extra rest to get his mechanics back in sync. He’s pitched Kimbrel on back-to-back days, hoping the frequency would allow something to click. He’s almost exclusively used Kimbrel in low-leverage situations so the veteran could find his groove without the pressures of the ninth inning.
So far, none of that has worked.
Kimbrel isn’t just struggling. He’s engrossed in the worst slump of his career.
In his 10 appearances since his last save on July 7, Kimbrel has allowed 13 runs in 9 2/3 innings — the first time he’s surrendered more than 10 runs in any 10-game stretch throughout his 15-year career. He allowed 11 hits (four home runs) while walking 12 for a 2.38 WHIP.
But the Orioles don’t have many alternatives here other than to give Kimbrel the runway to work out of his funk and hope he regains the form that made him a worthy All-Star candidate this summer.
“I’m going to continue to try,” Hyde said. “It’s not going to do him any good not to pitch. The situations come up, like maybe again down a couple runs. But ultimately it’s up to him. This hasn’t been a really good second half for him. He had a great first half, or a real good first half. He should’ve made the All-Star team. It’s just been a tough month, and hopefully he can turn it around.”
The only aspect of Kimbrel’s downturn that’s surprising is contrasting it with how dominant he was before.
The nine-time All-Star, one of the best closers in MLB history, had 23 saves and a 2.10 ERA before the final day of the first half. His first speed bump this season came in late April/early May, but in between that hiccup and his one, Kimbrel was the best relief pitcher in baseball. His 1.1 wins above replacement by FanGraphs’ estimation was the best among MLB relievers during those two months as the 36-year-old right-hander allowed only one earned run in 21 innings with 31 strikeouts against five walks.
That upside he still possesses is part of why Kimbrel could be critical to the Orioles’ bullpen down the stretch. He’s struggled in the postseason in his career with a 4.50 ERA in 30 innings, but the version of Kimbrel from earlier this season in the back end of Baltimore’s bullpen would be a boon for a unit beleaguered with injuries and inefficiency in recent weeks.
“It’s been a challenge,” Kimbrel said last weekend after another rough outing, his most recent before allowing two homers in Friday night’s 12-10 loss to the Boston Red Sox. “The challenge has been pretty apparent, throwing the ball over the plate when needed to. All in all, my consistency has just been really terrible, and when you’re inconsistent, you put guys on base and things happen.”
Aside from how good he looked before the All-Star break, what’s happened this season isn’t surprising. Many predicted it after the Orioles signed Kimbrel for $13 million this offseason.
The Kimbrel deal made sense, with the Orioles bringing in a veteran — albeit one far from his peak during his days with the Atlanta Braves and Red Sox — after 2023 All-Star closer Félix Bautista underwent Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery in October. General manager Mike Elias knew what he was getting in Kimbrel — the highs experienced in June and the lows in August. The risk was obvious and expected, and now it’s here.
However, despite Kimbrel’s first rough outing of this stretch coming July 14, the Orioles did not make a splash to bolster the back end of their bullpen. Instead, they acquired right-hander Seranthony Domínguez and lefty Gregory Soto from the Philadelphia Phillies — two hard-throwing relievers with a track record of pitching in high-leverage moments but difficulty against opposite-handed hitters.
Domínguez has dominated with the Orioles thus far with a 1.00 ERA in nine innings to perhaps earn the role as temporary closer with saves in his past two outings. Soto, on the other hand, has a 15.43 ERA in 4 2/3 innings.
The decision to not pay the premium for a closer — likely a smart decision given the imbalance of such moves — further shows the importance of sticking it through with Kimbrel, who is 6-4 with a 3.89 ERA and 23 saves in 29 opportunities. And that doesn’t automatically mean Kimbrel returning as the Orioles’ closer in every save situation. It’s less about who closes and more about finding a way to make Kimbrel a usable piece of the bullpen again.
Kimbrel has been better this season in low- and medium-leverage opportunities than high-leverage ones — a .122 batting average against in the former versus .262 in the latter.
One factor complicating the Orioles’ situation with Kimbrel is his difficulty pitching infrequently this season. On two or fewer days’ rest, Kimbrel has a 2.20 ERA. With three or more, he has a 7.04 ERA. So, perhaps the only way for him to snap out of his funk is to pitch more, but throwing a struggling Kimbrel more as the Orioles enter the stretch run batting the New York Yankees for first place in the American League East might not be wise, either.
The one positive for Baltimore’s bullpen, which struggled again in Saturday’s loss, is the potential returns of Jacob Webb and Danny Coulombe, two of the club’s best relievers who are on the injured list. Webb’s timeline is uncertain, but Coulombe is expected back in mid-to-late September.
There isn’t a button Hyde can push — nor is there one for Elias since the deadline ended — to magically fix this bullpen. And Kimbrel’s return to himself wouldn’t serve as a silver bullet.
But it would certainly help.
