If history is any indication, Jackson Holliday’s 2024 season will be his best yet.
Two years ago, Adley Rutschman was ranked as the No. 1 prospect on Baseball America’s official preseason list. He debuted that year and finished second in American League Rookie of the Year voting.
Gunnar Henderson received the same honor from Baseball America a year later and spent the 2023 campaign as the Orioles’ best player and was the franchise’s first Rookie of the Year in more than 30 years.
Holliday made it three in a row Wednesday, making the Orioles the first organization to have Baseball America’s top prospect in three consecutive years since the publication began ranking prospects in 1990. The distinction is another example of Holliday following in the footsteps of Rutschman and Holliday, and perhaps the 20-year-old shortstop can continue that in 2024 with his play on big league fields.
The honor is far from a surprise for Holliday, who ended the 2023 season as the top prospect on Baseball America’s updated list after his torrid season. At 19 years old, Holliday climbed the minor league ladder in unprecedented fashion, dominating each level from Low-A until he reached Triple-A in September. In recent history, only a handful of players have seen significant playing time in Triple-A during their age-19 season, and each of those players were in their second or third full seasons of professional ball, while Holliday was in his first.
Five other Orioles made Baseball America’s top 100 list: catcher Samuel Basallo (No. 10), infielder Coby Mayo (No. 25), outfielders Colton Cowser (No. 34) and Heston Kjerstad (No. 41), and left-hander DL Hall (No. 93). Last year, the Orioles had an MLB-best eight top 100 prospects, including infielders Joey Ortiz and Connor Norby, who are not on this year’s list and are the organization’s seventh- and eighth-best prospects. Rounding out Baltimore’s top 10 list are 2023 first-round pick Enrique Bradfield Jr. and right-hander Chayce McDermott.
When Rutschman and Henderson went back to back, it marked the first time in the publication’s history that two players from the same team’s draft class were listed as the sport’s top prospect. Baltimore selected Rutschman with the first overall selection in 2019 and then picked Henderson No. 42 overall. The only other time a pair of players from the same organization were ranked No. 1 on back-to-back preseason lists was when St. Louis Cardinals prospects J.D. Drew and Rick Ankiel did so in 1999 and 2000.
Across four levels last year, Holliday hit .323 with a .941 OPS in 125 games. The middle infielder hit .396 in 14 games with Low-A Delmarva before posting a .940 OPS with High-A Aberdeen — a stop many Orioles prospects have struggled in the past. He then hit .338 with Double-A Bowie to earn a late-season promotion to Triple-A Norfolk, where he posted a modest — for his standards — .796 OPS.
Holliday opened the 2023 season ranked 15th on Baseball America’s list, but his dominant season made him one of several Orioles to rise up prospect rankings. He ended the year as the publication’s Minor League Player of the Year.
“I don’t want to put the cart before the horse, but he had a historic first full season in the minors,” Orioles executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias said during the winter meetings. “You’d probably have to go back to the 80s or 90s to find something similar to that in my opinion for an American kid out of high school. Got to Triple-A, wasn’t there a huge amount of time, didn’t tear the cover off the ball but he more than held his own and did well.”
“I’ve never seen a kid that young go that fast, have that much success this fast, especially at a high level like Triple-A at 19,” manager Brandon Hyde said in December. “The numbers he’s put up through his short minor league career, especially for his age, are really incredible.”
Holliday turned 20 during the winter meetings, and it was a busy week for him. Elias said the 2022 first overall pick has a “very strong possibility” to make the Orioles’ opening day roster.
“He’s going to be treated in this major league camp not like a prospect, where we’re kind of having fun and having him in camp for the experience of it, but like a guy trying to make the team,” Elias said.
Scott Boras then said Elias frequently reaches out about signing Holliday and Henderson — two of the mega-agents’ many clients — to long-term contract extensions. The chance that happens is low given Boras’ track record, but it was an encouraging sign at least that the Orioles have contacted Holliday’s agent.
Elias then said that Holliday, obviously, isn’t available as the Orioles shop for a starting pitcher on the trade market.
“I can think of at least one,” Elias said with a laugh when asked for prospects who aren’t available.
Basallo and Mayo, like Holliday, also shot up prospect lists last season. Neither were inside Baseball America’s top 100 a year ago, and now they’re inside the top 25.
Basallo will enter his age-19 season ranked five spots higher than Holliday was entering his a year ago. The Dominican Republic native even had a debatably better 2023 campaign than Holliday. At 18 years old, Basallo began the season with Delmarva and ended it in Bowie. Across the three levels, he slashed .313/.402/.551 — good for a .953 OPS — with 20 home runs in 483 plate appearances.
Mayo, meanwhile, put up better numbers than Holliday or Basallo. The 2020 fourth-round pick split his age-21 season between Double-A and Triple-A and hit .290 with a .974 OPS. His 29 homers were the most of any Orioles minor league player.
Cowser, who made his major league debut in 2023 but struggled and was optioned back to Triple-A, is ranked lower than the No. 11 spot he occupied at the end of the year. Kjerstad also debuted last year and rose up the ranking after displaying his excellent hit tool with Bowie, Norfolk and Baltimore.
The stocked farm system is the lifeblood of the Orioles’ organization. Despite winning 101 games last year, Baltimore is still set up to restock in the 2024 draft with three first-round picks. The Orioles will pick three times between Nos. 22 and 34, with two additional picks thanks to MLB’s competitive balance measures and an incentive for Henderson winning the AL Rookie of the Year Award.
Perhaps the Orioles will select another Baseball America top prospect in that draft.