The Orioles extending the qualifying offer to Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander was simply a formality — a predictable action at the beginning of the offseason.
So too was what the pair of star players did Tuesday when they officially declined the one-year, $21.05 million contract offer, the Orioles announced.
Burnes and Santander rejecting the qualifying offer does not mean they can’t or won’t re-sign with Baltimore. However, if the Orioles want them back, they’ll have to pay a pretty penny. The ace is expected to receive a massive deal worth north of $200 million, while the switch-hitting outfielder could receive a nine-figure contract.
The $21.05 million offer is a predetermined amount by MLB. The program is in place as a competitive balance measure across baseball as a way for small-market teams to receive draft compensation if their star players leave in free agency.
For example, if Burnes and Santander both sign with another team this offseason, the Orioles would net two compensatory picks in the early rounds of the 2025 draft. If they sign for at least $50 million as expected, the compensatory picks would be between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A since the Orioles are a revenue-sharing recipient. That scenario would effectively give the club three first-round picks — its original pick (No. 19) and the two compensatory picks (projected to be between Nos. 31-34). Those additional picks would be valuable to an organization seen as one of the top drafting teams in MLB.
If the players sign for less than $50 million, the picks would be after Competitive Balance Round B — in which Baltimore already has an extra selection in 2025 — prior to the third round. Baltimore would not receive the compensatory picks if they re-sign both Burnes and Santander. If the Orioles sign a player that declined the qualifying offer from another club, they would lose their third-highest draft pick.
Aside from Burnes and Santander, 11 other players across MLB received the qualifying offer: New York Yankees slugger Juan Soto, Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman, Atlanta Braves left-hander Max Fried, Milwaukee Brewers shortstop Willy Adames, New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso, Los Angeles Dodgers Teoscar Hernández, Boston Red Sox right-hander Nick Pivetta, Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Christian Walker, Cincinnati Reds right-hander Nick Martinez and New York Mets pitchers Sean Manaea and Luis Severino. Martinez was the only player to accept it.
Burnes is a client of mega-agent Scott Boras, and the right-hander is viewed as the top starting pitcher on the free-agent market. The 30-year-old is a four-time All-Star and later this week will likely finish top eight in Cy Young Award voting for the fifth consecutive year. Burnes went 15-9 with a 2.92 ERA and twirled a gem in the postseason during his first and potentially only season in Baltimore after the Orioles acquired him in February.
Santander, meanwhile, is coming off a career year. He ranked third in MLB with 44 homers for one of the best power seasons by a switch-hitter in baseball history. His career is a winding one that began in 2016 when the Buck Showalter-era Orioles selected him in the Rule 5 draft. He overcame injuries and inconsistent playing time to become a consistent power hitter and an All-Star in 2024.
While Burnes is certain to receive a haul on the open market, it’s unclear how aggressive teams will be to sign Santander — perhaps making it more likely Baltimore is able to re-sign him. His contract will likely end up being worth $20 million per year, but whether he receives anywhere from three to seven years remains to be seen.
The Orioles are expected to be more aggressive in free agency this offseason with owner David Rubenstein at the helm. Executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias has yet to sign a free agent to a multiyear contract since taking over the Orioles’ front office in November 2019. Last week, he said he will continue to run the organization “optimally” but said that philosophy includes “high-end free agent deals over many years.”
“I’ve been very active, I’ll leave it at that,” he said when asked about free agency so far. “I’ve been talking to a lot of people. I think we have a clear idea of the types of player profiles that we’re seeking. As I’ve said, I think that our new ownership group and David Rubenstein has enabled us to be in a position to be very organized and prepared. As soon as free agency opened during the GM Meetings, we’ve been in a position to show people that we’re very serious about bringing players in and a lot of conversations ongoing right now.
“I think we’re going to be active and competitive.”
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