The Orioles are stepping into uncharted territory this offseason.
Backed by first-year owner David Rubenstein, Orioles executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias is exploring deals for some of the top free agent pitchers on the market to fill out their rotation. After years of fielding low payrolls under former Chairman and CEO John Angelos, the club isn’t acting like an organization hamstrung by its small market size anymore.
“We are looking at the whole menu, the whole spectrum,” Elias said in a video news conference on Nov. 15. “I credit the ownership change toward putting us in position to do that. … But I think if you’re running a team optimally, which is a word I’ve been focused on, you certainly want to keep the whole menu of player acquisition open. And that involves high-end free agent deals over many years, and we’ve been engaged in those conversations already.”
After Blake Snell’s five-year, $182 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, two bonafide aces remain available in free agency: Corbin Burnes and Max Fried. The Orioles are already familiar with Burnes, their blockbuster acquisition of last winter who delivered on the high expectations that came with being a former Cy Young Award winner. But Fried, who’s spent his entire career with the Atlanta Braves, has a decorated resume of his own.
Here’s a look at each of their free agent profiles:
Corbin Burnes
Throws: Right | Age on opening day: 30 | Agent: Scott Boras
Career statistics: 3.19 ERA, 1.06 WHIP in 199 games (138 starts) over 903 2/3 innings with 1,051 strikeouts (10.5 K/9), 254 walks (2.5 BB/9) and 97 home runs (1.0 HR/9)
FanGraphs’ median contract estimation: Six years, $180 million
There’s no need to imagine how Burnes would fit in Baltimore; he already showed how valuable he could be to the Orioles in 2024. The right-hander was dominant at his best, consistent from start to start and reliable for his ability to take the ball every fifth day. A disastrous month of August dashed his hopes of challenging Tarik Skubal for the American League Cy Young Award, but he still finished fifth in voting with a 2.92 ERA and 181 strikeouts in 32 starts.
Burnes also demonstrated he could step up on the postseason stage, pitching a gem against the Kansas City Royals in the wild-card round with eight innings of one-run ball. He was a respected leader in the Orioles’ clubhouse and an ambassador for the organization with his work to support Ronald McDonald House Charities Maryland. The prospect cost the Orioles paid to acquire Burnes was steep, but he proved worth the investment.
Now, the cost will be even higher. Burnes’ deal will rival that of Snell’s, if not surpass it given he’s two years younger. The question the Orioles must answer before signing Burnes to what would almost certainly be a franchise record for a free agent contract is whether they’re concerned about some of his underlying metrics from last season.
Since winning the National League Cy Young Award with the Milwaukee Brewers in 2021, Burnes’ strikeout rate has declined every year. His velocity has remained relatively consistent but the whiff rate on his best pitch, his cutter, dropped from 33.2% in 2021 to 19% last season. Burnes said throughout the campaign he was making an effort to pitch to contact more — he set a three-year high with a 48.2% groundball rate doing so — and it showed through in the results as he posted a 28.9% hard-hit rate that ranked 11th best among qualified starters.
Though the cutter might not be as effective anymore, Burnes leaned on the rest of his five-pitch arsenal more than ever last season setting career highs for his usage of the curveball (21.5%) and slider (12.8%). His strikeout rate will probably never again reach the heights of 2021, but his blend of high velocity and crafty pitch selection still makes him a matchup nightmare for both right-handed and left-handed hitters.
With a history of durability and no previous major surgeries to worry about, Burnes is as safe a bet to stay healthy as a pitcher can be in today’s era of rampant elbow injuries. Rather, a long-term deal for Burnes would be a bet that when his velocity inevitably starts to dip, he will have an effective enough pitch mix to remain a productive starter and make up for the lack of strikeouts.
Max Fried
Throws: Left | Age on opening day: 31 | Agent: CAA Sports
Career statistics: 3.07 ERA, 1.16 WHIP in 168 games (151 starts) over 884 1/3 innings with 863 strikeouts (8.8 K/9), 246 walks (2.5 BB/9) and 76 home runs (0.8 HR/9)
FanGraphs’ median contract estimation: Five years, $125 million
Fried might have been a better fit for the Orioles before they decided to move the left field wall at Camden Yards back in, but the left-hander is still a strong option for Baltimore to consider in free agency. The 2022 NL Cy Young Award runner-up has the lowest ERA in the majors (2.81) among starters with at least 500 innings, one spot ahead of Burnes (2.88).
Never an elite strikeout artist, Fried instead excels at inducing weak contact (58.8% groundball rate led the NL last season) and keeping the ball in the yard. He throws a fastball that averages 94 mph and mixes in a steady stream of curveballs, sinkers and changeups. With strong accuracy and a penchant for pounding the strike zone, Fried already has the profile of a pitcher who can sustain his current form deep into his 30s. He also brings a bevy of postseason experience including a 2021 World Series title with Atlanta.
The biggest red flag in the case for signing Fried is his injury history. He’s missed time each of the last two seasons with forearm issues, including a three-month stay on the injured list with a forearm strain in 2023. Fried has at least 28 starts in four of the past six seasons, but he’s also only pitched 185 innings once in his career.
Fried’s low mileage on his arm could work in his favor — he ranks 37th in innings among pitchers through their age-30 seasons in the past 10 years — though it’s unlikely he’ll ever be a workhorse starter capable of pitching six-plus innings every start for six months. It’s a caveat that will likely be baked into his asking price, with his contract value expected to fall under those for Snell and Burnes.
While Fried will likely be cheaper than Burnes, signing him would cost the Orioles a pick in next summer’s MLB draft because the former declined the Braves’ qualifying offer. As a revenue-sharing team, the Orioles would be required to forfeit their third-highest draft pick if they sign Fried for at least $50 million. Assuming Burnes clears that number and signs elsewhere, Baltimore would be giving up its second-round selection.
Yet that’s the price contenders must pay for win-now moves. The Orioles showed with their trades over the past year that winning in the present is the top priority, and signing Fried would install another unquestioned ace atop their rotation for 2025. Burnes’ resume has the edge, but the left-handed Fried would balance out the Orioles’ righty-heavy rotation and save some payroll space Elias could use elsewhere.
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