After adding Tomoyuki Sugano, Orioles’ rotation is one big arm away | ANALYSIS

It’s not even Christmas, and Mike Elias has checked off most of his offseason wishlist.

The Orioles general manager filled the hole left by Anthony Santander in the heart of Baltimore’s lineup, signing outfielder Tyler O’Neill to a three-year, $49.5 million contract. Elias then brought in catcher Gary Sánchez for $8.5 million to replace James McCann. And Monday, Elias bolstered the depth of his rotation by adding starting pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano from Japan.

But the biggest item on Elias’ list — or, at the very least, something Baltimore fans hope is at the top of his list — has yet to be secured. And Santa doesn’t have enough of these for every team this winter.

The Orioles’ rotation — especially after adding Sugano, a veteran strike-thrower — is likely good enough and deep enough to send Baltimore to the postseason for the third straight season. But it’s lacking another big arm at the top, a hurler who would give the Orioles one of the better rotations in the American League and a starting corps capable of making a World Series run.

Adding a No. 1 starting pitcher — or a legitimate No. 2 — to team up with Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez atop the Orioles’ rotation would give the Orioles a strong top three to go along with solid depth and injured ace Kyle Bradish potentially able to return in the second half of the season.

The big arm Baltimore needs could still be Corbin Burnes, whose one-year lease as Baltimore’s ace could be extended about eight more if owner David Rubenstein and Mike Elias are willing to outbid the market and spend upwards of $250 million. Scott Boras, the mega-agent who represents Burnes, said Monday the sweepstakes for the former Cy Young Award winner “boils down to ownership.”

Burnes is the only No. 1-type starter on the free agent market after the Los Angeles Dodgers signed Blake Snell for $182 million and the New York Yankees inked Max Fried to a $218 million deal. There are a few who have been rumored to be available via trade, including Houston Astros left-hander Framber Valdez, San Diego Padres right-hander Dylan Cease and Seattle Mariners righty Luis Castillo.

Manager Brandon Hyde said during last week’s MLB winter meetings that while he’d ideally want a true ace, he recognizes “there are only so many of those guys out there.”

“If you don’t have that true No. 1 type of guy, you have guys that can improve also. I think Grayson’s got No. 1 stuff. Grayson could be that guy. I look for him to take a big step forward next year. We need to pick up the pieces, those 33 awesome starts that Burnes gave us and what he brought to our team and continue to see what happens here with the rest of the offseason with what we bring in.”

Most of the other available starters wouldn’t be able to single-handedly replace Burnes, who finished in the top eight of Cy Young voting for the fifth straight season in 2024. But bringing in another No. 2-type starter — the same level as Eflin and Rodriguez — would still make the rotation a formidable one, even without having a true ace.

The only available No. 2 starter in free agency is Jack Flaherty, who had an excellent 2024 campaign after struggling with Baltimore in 2023’s second half. However, there are plenty who could be up for trade, including Seattle Mariners righty Bryce Miller, Miami Marlins left-hander Jesús Luzardo and Pittsburgh Pirates right-handers Jared Jones and Mitch Keller.

Elias said during the winter meetings that the competition for starting pitching is “enormous.” That’s been evident by the contracts given out, as every starter who’s signed so far this winter has been given more money than projected by MLB Trade Rumors.

“There aren’t too many teams making their major league players available for prospects right now,” Elias said last week. “Those that are, we’re deeply engaged with those teams. Those that aren’t in that mode, we’re exploring more major league-for-major league kind of trades, which take unique fits on the rosters.”

Adding a big arm would put Eflin and Rodriguez as the club’s No. 2 and 3 starters in its opening day rotation. Dean Kremer and Sugano would then be the Orioles’ Nos. 4 and 5 starters. Others like Trevor Rogers, Cade Povich, Albert Suárez, Brandon Young and Chayce McDermott could take the remaining spot if the Orioles choose to have a six-man rotation, or they could serve as bullpen arms or depth in Triple-A Norfolk. And, of course, Bradish and Tyler Wells are set to return after undergoing elbow surgery in June.

As the Orioles experienced last year, though, not everything goes to plan. Injuries hampered Baltimore’s rotation and lineup, leading to a disappointing second half and an early playoff exit. While Burnes and Eflin helped the Orioles reach the postseason and held up their ends of the bargain in their playoff starts, they were let down by an offense that totaled only one run in 18 innings.

But there are no games in December, only back-of-the-napkin rotation plans. On paper, the Orioles’ rotation got better Monday by adding Sugano, but it’s still one addition away.