The streak is over, but it was bound to end at some point.
For three straight years, the Orioles opened MLB’s preseason with Baseball America’s No. 1 prospect. Adley Rutschman earned the honor in January 2022. Then Gunnar Henderson in 2023. Then Jackson Holliday in 2024.
Prospects Samuel Basallo and Coby Mayo put up stellar numbers in the minor leagues last season thanks to their powerful bats, but they came up short of making it four years in a row for the Orioles.
Baseball America released its top 100 list Wednesday, and Dodgers right-hander Roki Sasaki was unsurprisingly crowned as the No. 1 prospect in the sport after leaving Japan for Los Angeles this offseason. Basallo, a catcher and first baseman, is listed at No. 14 as the top catching prospect in baseball. Mayo, a corner infielder, fell to No. 29.
Basallo, 20, wasn’t anywhere near top prospect status entering the 2023 season, but he burst onto the scene with a dominant campaign that even rivaled the historic one Holliday had. The Dominican Republic native had the potential to vault himself into No. 1 prospect territory in 2024, but came up short after hitting .289 with an .820 OPS in Double-A Bowie. He earned a late-season promotion to Norfolk, joining an exclusive list of prospects in recent MLB history to take a week’s worth of plate appearances at Triple-A in their age-19 season.
Mayo, 23, struggled in his first taste of the big leagues last season, but he was remarkable in Triple-A to shoot up prospect lists. The 2020 fourth-round draft pick hit .287 with a .926 OPS and 48 extra-base hits (23 doubles, 22 homers, three triples) in 89 games for Norfolk. Mayo ended last season ranked eighth by Baseball America, but his stumbles in the majors and the emergence of other prospects caused him to fall 21 spots.
Mayo’s defense remains an unanswered question as he looks to make the Orioles’ opening day roster this spring, but few prospects in baseball have as much potential at the plate. Basallo will be in major league spring training again. While it’s unlikely he’ll break camp with the big club, he could play himself into the major leagues before the end of the 2025 season.
Only one other Orioles player made the publication’s top 100 list: outfielder Heston Kjerstad at No. 81. That’s also a steep drop for 2020 No. 2 overall pick, who was previously ranked No. 40. But Kjerstad, 25, has already tasted the big leagues in two seasons and is one at-bat away from graduating from prospect status. He is not rookie eligible in 2025.
Having only three players ranked as top 100 prospects is a stark contrast from how well-regarded the Orioles’ farm system has been in previous seasons. Last year, Baltimore had six top 100 prospects. The year before, the club had eight. But many of those players have since graduated from prospect status or been traded to other organizations for MLB-ready players.
Over the past two seasons, Baltimore has promoted top 100 prospects Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, Jordan Westburg Colton Cowser, Jackson Holliday and Cade Povich. And the organization has traded away several others, including DL Hall, Joey Ortiz and Connor Norby. Kjerstad made his MLB debut in 2023 and spent time in Baltimore last season, but he’s yet to play enough in the majors to graduate from prospect status.
When Holliday made it three in a row last year, the Orioles became the first organization to do so since Baseball America began its rankings in 1990. The honor for Holliday came after he jumped from Low-A to Triple-A in one season at only 19 years old. When Rutschman and Henderson went back to back, it marked the first time in the publication’s history that two players from the same team’s draft class were listed as the sport’s top prospect. Baltimore selected Rutschman with the first overall selection in 2019 and then picked Henderson No. 42 overall.
Rounding out Baltimore’s organizational top 10 list are 2024 first-round pick Vance Honeycutt, right-hander Chayce McDermott, 2023 first-round pick Enrique Bradfield Jr., outfielder Dylan Beavers, right-hander Michael Forret, outfielder Jud Fabian and shortstop Griff O’Ferrall, the No. 32 pick in 2024.
Other publications are more bullish on some of Baltimore’s prospects. FanGraphs, which hasn’t released its 2025 preseason list yet, ranked Basallo at No. 1 to end the 2024 campaign. Baseball Prospectus has Basallo at No. 11, Mayo at No. 14 and Bradfield at No. 46. Baseball Prospectus has routinely been higher on Bradfield, who possesses elite speed and defensive ability, than other publications. MLB Pipeline and ESPN have yet to release their preseason top 100 lists.
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