The Orioles’ farm system is no longer the class of the sport.
Baseball America placed the Orioles at No. 17 in its annual organizational prospect rankings Wednesday, ending Baltimore’s run of back-to-back seasons at the top spot. The Athletic’s Keith Law and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel also dropped the Orioles from their respective top 10s, offering a consensus view of the Orioles’ prospects that has dimmed compared with previous years.
It should come as no surprise that the Orioles no longer have the league’s best farm system after graduating five top-100 prospects over the past two years: infielders Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg; outfielder Colton Cowser and right-hander Grayson Rodriguez. The club also traded a significant chunk of its prospect pool for roster upgrades with moves for Corbin Burnes, Trevor Rogers, Zach Eflin and Gregory Soto, among others.
“Our goal is to win Major League Baseball games, not to have the No. 1 farm system forever,” vice president of player development and domestic scouting Matt Blood said at the winter meetings earlier this offseason. “We always want to develop good players as best we can but ultimately our job is to support the major league team and that’s what you’re seeing come to fruition at the major league level.”
Since first breaking into Baseball America’s top five ahead of the 2022 season, the Orioles have recorded 275 regular-season wins — tied with the New York Yankees for the fourth most in the majors and second most in the American League over that span. While that success has yet to translate in the playoffs, Baltimore’s core is poised to remain intact for at least the next three years before catcher Adley Rutschman becomes the first of their young stars to hit free agency.
Baltimore does still boast three prospects in Baseball America’s top 100. Catcher Samuel Basallo (No. 14) and infielder Coby Mayo (No. 29) carry star upside and both could be contributing at the major league level as soon as this season. Mayo appeared in 17 games across a pair of call-ups with the Orioles last year while Basallo reached Triple-A in August.
Outfielder Heston Kjerstad (No. 81), though having already exceeded rookie status, was still eligible for Baseball America’s rankings. He’s expected to compete for a spot on the opening day roster in spring training and has already impressed in limited playing time with six home runs and a .746 OPS in 52 games over the past two seasons.
Other outlets such as ESPN, The Athletic and Baseball Prospectus also included outfielder Enrique Bradfield Jr. in their prospect rankings this winter. Bradfield, the Orioles’ first-round draft pick in 2023, reached Double-A Chesapeake last year and stole 74 bases in 108 games between two minor league levels. Renowned for his speed and defense, Bradfield’s lack of power (.364 slugging percentage in the minors) is the only thing limiting his upside.
While the Orioles still have elite position player talent, long-term options for their rotation require more development. Left-hander Cade Povich, who sneaked into the top 100 of several midseason prospect rankings, emerged as a potential starter with 16 big league starts last year. Right-hander Chayce McDermott is now their top pitching prospect after posting one of the highest strikeout rates (32.9%) in the minors with Triple-A Norfolk.
Beyond McDermott, Povich and right-hander Brandon Young, a 2020 undrafted free agent who broke out in Norfolk last season, the majority of the Orioles’ pitching prospects are a couple of years away from warranting consideration for the majors.
As the Orioles aim for their first World Series title since 1983, they are forced to address their farm system from that of a playoff contender. Gone are the days when they were able to draft Holliday or Rutschman No. 1 overall or Kjerstad at No. 2 or Cowser at No. 5. Instead, the club’s player development will be tested in its ability to make the most of its late-first-round selections and later picks.
“I don’t think the strategy changes ever,” Blood said at the winter meetings of the Orioles’ approach to the first round. “You have the time to make a pick and you want to make the best bet you possibly can every single pick. Every pick is valuable. Players come from everywhere so our job is to make the best bet we can, and whether that’s the first pick or whatever round, every pick, we’re trying to make the best pick we can.”
Helping matters has been the Orioles’ growing investment in the Latin American pipeline. The club made international scouting a greater priority under executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias and opened a baseball academy in the Dominican Republic last winter. Baltimore has already started to see the effects of that investment with the rise of prospects such as Basallo and left-hander Luis De Leon, who reached High-A last season.
Baltimore Sun reporter Jacob Calvin Meyer contributed to this article. Have a news tip? Contact Matt Weyrich at mweyrich@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/ByMattWeyrich.