Baltimore Sun Orioles reporter Jacob Calvin Meyer will answer fans’ questions throughout Orioles spring training and the season. Here are JCM’s thoughts on several questions from readers:
(Editor’s note: Questions have been edited for length and clarity. Email jameyer@baltsun.com with questions for next Friday’s mailbag.)
What will it take for Coby Mayo to break camp with the big league squad? Is it unfair for him to be in Triple-A again? — Madison from Baltimore
Let’s answer the second question first.
In theory, is it “unfair” for a player who has proven he can dominate Triple-A pitching to be back there? Sure. Mayo’s career .919 OPS at the level is better than the numbers put up by many of his predecessors, including Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman and Jordan Westburg. Last season, the corner infield prospect hit .287 with 48 extra-base hits in only 89 games with Norfolk. One day, potentially soon, Mayo is expected to be an excellent hitter in the big leagues.
However, nothing else about Mayo’s situation is “unfair” — and he’d say the same thing.
Mayo is a member of a winning ballclub with one of the deepest rosters in the sport. He’s only 23 years old. He struggled mightily in his first taste of the big leagues. And he’s still working to improve his defense at both corners, which it appears he did this winter.
It’s felt to some fans that general manager Mike Elias has taken too long to promote some of his prospects, or that when he has, the club hasn’t given all of them enough playing time. Westburg played 158 games in Triple-A before his promotion in 2023, and Heston Kjerstad has spent much of his big league career on the bench hoping for pinch-hit opportunities. The situation with Mayo is more complicated given the ambiguity regarding his defense and that he’s too young with too much room to improve to employ as a backup in the majors.
OK, back to the first question. It’s unlikely Mayo cracks the opening day roster without an injury (or two) or a trade. Him having a 2024 Colton Cowser-esque spring would go a long way, but even then, it’s more likely than not that he opens the season in Norfolk.
Ryan Mountcastle, a right-handed hitter, is a regular at first base, and Ramón Urías is a valuable bench player coming off perhaps his best offensive season. What Mayo can do this spring, though, is make Elias and manager Brandon Hyde’s jobs more difficult, and make himself the next man up if an injury does occur early in the season.
Who among the Orioles’ outfielders has the strongest arm? — Ed from Yuma, Arizona
Was baseball more fun before we knew the answers to these questions?
Before Statcast, this answer would’ve been based purely off the eye test. Baseball people knew Roberto Clemente had an absolute cannon without measuring the velocity of every one of his throws, just like they knew Brooks Robinson was a vacuum at third base without calculating his outs above average.
The depth of knowledge available on Baseball Savant has made fans and media smarter about the game. Questions like Ed’s have concrete answers. But this data has also taken part of the wonder away from a game that is at its best when it’s mysterious.
Still, all this information does, on the whole, make the game more interesting. Knowledge trumps ignorance, even if the latter brings us bliss.
Oh, right, the question. Sorry for getting sidetracked there, Ed.
Of the five outfielders expected to make the Orioles’ opening day roster, Cedric Mullins is the only one with below average arm strength. Ramón Laureano, Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad and Tyler O’Neill all ranked in the 82nd percentile or better in Statcast’s arm strength metric, which averages the velocity of the outfielder’s 10% hardest throws. By arm strength alone, Cowser’s 93.1 mph average last year ranked in the 96th percentile and the sixth best among AL outfielders.
There’d be a different answer, though, if Ed’s question was: Who among the Orioles’ outfielders has the best arm? That would be Laureano, a newcomer to Baltimore who has a strong reputation as one of the best outfield arms in baseball. In every season since 2019, Laureano has rated in the top 25% of Statcast’s arm value metric, which grades how well fielders do at preventing runners from taking extra bases. Last season, Laureano ranked first in MLB by saving four runs thanks to his arm alone.
Assuming no trades and no injuries, who gets bumped off the 26-man roster when Jorge Mateo returns? — Thomas from Ellicott City
A roster question with multiple qualifiers? OK, here’s an answer with multiple disclaimers:
- There will almost certainly be an injury.
- A trade to make space isn’t out of the question.
- Things will happen in the next two months that none of us could predict, and those things will throw a wrench into this question.
Still, we’re here to answer questions, so here goes: The most likely person to be bumped off the 26-man roster when Mateo returns is … Mateo?
The Orioles value Mateo’s versatility, speed and defense, and it’s far more likely than not that one of the disclaimers listed above happen to get Mateo on the roster once he’s healthy. It’s also possible that the Orioles are slow-playing Mateo’s recovery and continue to do so in the hopes that he’s able to fill in when an injury arises early in the season. His ability to play shortstop, second base and center field gives him the opportunity to fill in for several players if they land on the shelf.
Additionally, if Kjerstad or Laureano or Urías or even Jackson Holliday have a slow start to the season, it’s possible one of them is optioned or waived to make room for Mateo. But all of those players either present upside — especially offensively — that Mateo, who is a career .224 hitter with a .639 OPS, lacks, or they serve as more logical fits for this roster. This is a perfect example of a good problem to have in spring training, one the Orioles face because they sport one of MLB’s deepest rosters.
Who is a surprise player from spring training who should or will make the Orioles’ opening day roster? — @MrEd315 on X
Assuming health, it seems quite likely that the Orioles’ 26-man roster on opening day will look like this:
- Rotation: Eflin, Rodriguez, Morton, Kremer, Sugano
- Bullpen: Bautista, Cano, Domínguez, Kittredge, Soto, Pérez, Akin, Suárez
- Catcher: Rutschman, Sánchez
- Infield: Mountcastle, Holliday, Westburg, Gunnar, O’Hearn, Urías
- Outfield: Cowser, Mullins, O’Neill, Kjerstad, Laureano
Orioles roster projection: Coby Mayo, Cade Povich face long odds as spring games begin
If everything goes to plan this spring, the best answer about a “surprise player” making the roster is that there won’t be one. But injuries happen, and so do breakouts. A year ago, Cowser wasn’t seen as a likely pick to break camp in the big leagues, but he forced his way on thanks to a scorching-hot spring.
On the position player side, Dylan Carlson might be the easiest pick given that he is a switch-hitter on the 40-man roster who can play all three outfield spots. If any outfielder goes down, he seems to be a shoo-in as the next man up.
For the starting rotation, Cade Povich’s avenue to making the club is by pitching so well this spring — similar to the way he did in September when he was rewarded by making the playoff roster — that Elias and company decide they simply have to find a way to get the lefty on the roster. That might not be likely, but one injury to a starting pitcher could make it a reality for Povich if he stands out in camp.
The best guess, though, isn’t a big prospect like Mayo or Samuel Basallo, nor is it a true surprise like Vimael Machin or Rodolfo Martinez. Instead, it’s a relief pitcher Baltimore fans are quite familiar with. Bryan Baker, who owns a career 3.78 ERA in 138 innings for the Orioles since 2022, could be a good bet considering he is on the 40-man roster but is without a minor league option. If he doesn’t break camp with the Orioles, he’d be subject to waivers. One bullpen injury, especially to a righty, or a slower timeline for Félix Bautista that causes the closer to begin the season on the injured list could free a spot that’s easily filled by Baker in the short term.
Have a question for next week’s mailbag? Contact Jacob Calvin Meyer at jameyer@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/JCalvinMeyer.
