With just two games left in the regular season, No. 13 Maryland men’s basketball is running out of chances to improve its NCAA Tournament resume. Fortunately for the Terps, they’re well within the projected field. The battle now is to improve their seeding.
Maryland’s projected seed can improve Wednesday, as the Terps face No. 17 Michigan on the road for a chance at their seventh Quadrant 1 victory of the season. They’ve climbed to No. 14 in the NET rankings, which are used to sort teams into quadrants and aid the selection committee as it picks and seeds the NCAA Tournament field. Maryland is 11-0 in Quad 3 and 4 games, suggesting the Terps don’t have any bad losses. They’re a solid 5-1 in Quad 2 games, although their 6-6 record in Quad 1 games leaves room for improvement.
The Terps are viewed reasonably well by most advanced metrics that the selection committee is given to review teams before fielding the 68-team tournament, although predictive metrics view them better than the strictly resume-focused numbers:
- Basketball Power Index: 14
- KenPom: 14
- NET: 14
- Torvik: 16
- KPI: 24
- Strength of Record: 24
- Wins Above Bubble: 28
The resume-focused metrics would improve with a road win over a well-respected Michigan team and any meaningful neutral site wins in this month’s Big Ten Tournament. A win against Michigan would also help the team’s Big Ten Tournament seeding outlook. With strong current metrics, “bracketologists” have the Terps on the verge of earning a top-four seed for the first time since 2015.
Towson, which went 16-2 in Coastal Athletic Association play to earn the conference’s No. 1 seed for its upcoming tournament, is also projected to make the field as the CAA’s automatic qualifier. Here’s where a few prominent bracket experts have the Terps and Tigers projected to land in the NCAA Tournament field.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi
Lunardi lists Maryland as a No. 5 seed in the East Region, and the Terps would open against No. 12 seed Drake. The winner would face the victor of Arizona vs. Akron in the second round. Lunardi’s projected East Region gives Duke the No. 1 seed, which means the Blue Devils and Terps could hypothetically meet in the Sweet 16. The former Atlantic Coast Conference rivals haven’t played since 2014.
ESPN’s resident bracketologist puts Towson in the East Region as well, with the Tigers earning a No. 14 seed. Lunardi has Towson opening with St. John’s. The Tigers haven’t made the NCAA Tournament since 1991, although they’re the No. 1 seed in the CAA Tournament and will only need to win three games in three days to punch their ticket to the Big Dance.
FOX Sports’ Mike DeCourcy
DeCourcy projects Maryland as a No. 5 seed in his latest bracket estimate, with the Terps facing the winner of Arkansas vs. Nebraska in the opening round. DeCourcy’s projection shares his entire seeding list, and he has Maryland as the last No. 5 seed, meaning the Terps have work to do to climb to a top-four seed.
With Michigan listed as a No. 4 seed, Wednesday’s game holds significant intrigue. A road win over the Wolverines could help the Terps become a No. 4 seed, while moving Michigan down the seed line. Michigan has dropped two of its past four games, and games against Maryland and Michigan State to wrap up the regular season could lead to another pair of defeats.
DeCourcy, like Lunardi, has Towson as a No. 14 seed. The Tigers would face Iowa State in DeCourcy’s projection.
CBS’ Jerry Palm
Interestingly, Palm is a bigger believer in the resume metrics than the predictive data. He lists Maryland as a No. 7 seed and has the Terps opening their NCAA Tournament against No. 10 seed Georgia. The winner could face No. 2 seed Alabama in the next round.
Palm is one of the only bracket projections nationally with Maryland holding anything worse than a No. 6 seed. It would be surprising if the Terps earned a No. 7 seed, given their current body of work and Big Ten standing.
Palm matches Lunardi’s bracket with Towson securing a No. 14 seed as the CAA’s automatic qualifier, and he has the Tigers facing St. John’s in the first round of the tournament.
Have a news tip? Contact sports editor Bennett Conlin at bconlin@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/BennettConlin.