The Orioles’ quest to defend their American League East title begins next week when they report to Sarasota, Florida, for spring training.
A historic 2023 season in which the Orioles won 101 games before falling in the American League Division Series to the eventual World Series champion Texas Rangers preceded a quiet winter in Baltimore. At least, it was quiet until executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias swung a trade Thursday for arguably the top starting pitcher available in Corbin Burnes.
Aside from the additions of Burnes and veteran closer Craig Kimbrel, who signed a one-year deal in December, their roster as currently constructed largely resembles the one that guided the Orioles to their first playoff berth in seven years. This season, however, they face significantly higher expectations. A World Series title is a realistic goal if they can build on their 2023 success.
Before spring training gets underway, The Baltimore Sun is breaking down each of the Orioles’ position groups to examine their strengths, weaknesses and breakout candidates.
With catcher already examined, up next: the infield, where the Orioles boast the reigning AL Rookie of the Year and a player among the favorites to take the award next.
Opening day candidates
In 2023, the average age of the Orioles’ infielders who started the most games at each position was 28.5 years old. Yet among Ryan Mountcastle (first base, 90 games), Adam Frazier (second base, 130), Ramón Urías (third base, 92) and Jorge Mateo (shortstop, 110), only Mountcastle figures to return atop the Orioles’ depth chart for his position in 2024 after their farm system started stocking their infield with young talent as the summer went on.
The biggest addition to their lineup was Gunnar Henderson, who won AL Rookie of the Year and a Silver Slugger at the utility position as he split time between shortstop (83 games), third base (84) and designated hitter (11). Metrics point to his play at shortstop as his greatest defensive asset, but there is an entirely plausible scenario in which he’s pushed over to third for good by opening day.
Just as Henderson was in 2023 and catcher Adley Rutschman before him, Orioles shortstop Jackson Holliday is the consensus top prospect in baseball heading into 2024. Elias has considered him a candidate for their opening day lineup since at least as early as October.
“He hasn’t been in Triple-A fairly long, but he did pretty well,” Elias said at his end-of-season news conference last year. “I think when you’re 19 and [then] you’re 20, it’s one year but that’s a lot of aging and physical development. I can’t wait to see what he looks like in spring training. Look forward to having him there. He’s going to have a chance to make the team.”
The starting job at second base will also likely come down to a spring training competition with 2020 first-round pick Jordan Westburg looking to beat out Mateo and Urías. Although Westburg posted solid numbers for the Orioles as a rookie, he might end up in a platoon-type role if he can’t improve on .676 OPS against right-handed pitchers.
Over at first, Mountcastle is once again the favorite to garner the most playing time. However, he could see more time at DH this season if the Orioles want to get Ryan O’Hearn’s bat in the lineup against righties or give No. 3 prospect Coby Mayo a chance to acclimate to the big leagues.
Biggest question
Can Jackson Holliday’s meteoric ascent carry over into the majors?
This time last year, Holliday had just 20 games of professional baseball under his belt and none of them above the Low-A level. He then proceeded to earn three promotions in one summer, never needing more than two months at a single stop to show the Orioles’ brass enough to move on. The final result was a .323/.442/.499 slash line with 12 home runs and 24 stolen bases in 125 games.
Though he was a No. 1 overall draft pick in 2022, it was Holliday’s seamless transition to the minor leagues that earned him the title of baseball’s top prospect. His power is expected to develop with age, but his plate discipline is already advanced. Holliday drew nearly as many walks (101) as he did strike out (108).
If the Orioles do decide to open a spot on the 40-man roster and add him to their opening day lineup, Holliday will be the youngest Oriole to make his MLB debut on opening day since right-hander John Papa broke camp with the club in 1961. Baltimore’s deep lineup won’t require Holliday to hit high in the order right away, so he should have some leeway to experience growing pains early on.
X-factor
While it might seem easy to call Henderson the X-factor of the Orioles’ infield after the season he had, the 2019 second-round pick didn’t have the smoothest start to his 2023 campaign. Henderson made the Orioles’ opening day roster but got off to a slow start, hitting .170 with a nearly 30% strikeout rate over his first 33 games. It wasn’t until he took a more aggressive approach at the plate that he caught fire, slashing .274/.321/.528 with 25 home runs over his final 117 contests.
Henderson was also perhaps the Orioles’ biggest bright spot in their ALDS sweep at the hands of the Rangers, going 6-for-12 with a homer and three runs scored. He also cost the Orioles a valuable out when he was caught stealing trying to take second in the ninth inning of Baltimore’s 3-2 Game 1 loss. Progress is hardly ever linear and, as he enters his second full season, there is a threat of a sophomore slump for the left-handed slugger.
Pitchers will take a new approach against him in 2024 after using the full offseason to review his rookie tape. Sweeper usage exploded last season and Henderson, while he didn’t see many, struggled to make contact against the pitch with a 34.8% whiff rate against them — his highest swing-and-miss rate of any pitch, according to Statcast. He crushed fastballs in general much more than breaking balls and it’s likely opponents will try to take advantage of that to see if he can adjust.
Much of that will depend on who’s in front of and behind Henderson in the batting order. Manager Brandon Hyde used Henderson at leadoff frequently down the stretch but often tinkered with the lineup depending on matchups. If Henderson hits with runners on base enough, the Orioles will be able to mitigate the number of breaking balls he sees.
The future
The Orioles’ youth movement on the infield began with Henderson but didn’t stop there. Westburg graduated to the majors as well, as did Joey Ortiz. The latter won’t be in the mix moving forward, however, as he was packaged in the deal that sent Corbin Burnes to Baltimore. That leaves Mayo next in line to get a crack at manning a position on the Orioles’ infield.
Ranked the 25th overall prospect by Baseball America, Mayo measures out at 6 feet, 5 inches and 230 pounds. As that frame might indicate, he hits for a ton of power: Mayo blasted 29 home runs and 45 doubles in 140 games between Double-A Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk last season. Camden Yards might not be a favorable park for right-handed sluggers, but his 70-grade power will still play.
As evidenced by the Orioles’ willingness to trade Ortiz, there’s a massive logjam in their infield. If Henderson and Holliday are the future on the left side, then Mayo and Westburg will need to take advantage of their opportunities to fend off Samuel Basallo, who might be forced to first base because of Adley Rutschman, and Connor Norby, who put up an .842 OPS in a full season at Triple-A in 2023.
No matter where you look, the future is bright on the Orioles’ infield. If the projected infield of Mountcastle, Westburg, Henderson and Holliday does indeed suit up for opening day, the average age of that group will be 23.8 years old. Some combination of these names is going to man the infield dirt in Baltimore for a long time.
Baltimore Sun reporter Jacob Calvin Meyer contributed to this article.