It always takes more than five starting pitchers to get an MLB club through a full season, but the Orioles are going to have to dig into their cupboard earlier than expected this year. Executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias revealed Thursday that right-hander Kyle Bradish and veteran lefty John Means are nursing injuries heading into spring training.
Bradish, who finished fourth in American League Cy Young Award voting last season, sprained the ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing elbow while ramping up for the season in January. He received platelet-rich plasma injections in an effort to speed up his recovery. Though the Orioles plan to start the 27-year-old on a throwing program Friday, Bradish is expected to begin the season on the injured list.
The same is likely true for Means, 30, who is still dealing with elbow discomfort related to his comeback from his own UCL reconstruction surgery. Hindered by his Tommy John recovery and a back strain, Means didn’t make his 2023 season debut until September and only lasted four starts before the Orioles shut him down.
Without Bradish or Means, the Orioles’ opening day rotation will look a bit different from what fans expected before camp. Assuming Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer are locks for the top three spots, here’s a look at who could join them in Baltimore on March 28.
Internal veterans
All offseason, Elias touted the depth the Orioles have in their rotation. The immediate in-house favorites to fill in for Bradish and Means are Cole Irvin and Tyler Wells, both of whom bounced between the rotation and bullpen for the Orioles in 2023. Wells enjoyed the greater success of the two, posting a 3.64 ERA with 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings in 25 appearances (20 starts). Irvin finished with a 4.42 ERA and 7.9 K/9 across 24 games (12 starts).
It’s possible both could make the rotation out of camp, though the Orioles don’t have to pick a fifth starter right away. Baltimore’s early-season schedule includes enough days off early on that it could roll out a four-man rotation for the first three turns. The earliest the Orioles would need a fifth starter is April 15 against the Minnesota Twins, their 16th game of the year. As a result, they could name one of Irvin and Wells a starter with the other ready to provide bulk innings out of the bullpen if needed.
Other starters who could get a look for a rotation spot in spring training include Bruce Zimmermann, who started double-digit games for Baltimore in 2021 and 2022, and offseason trade acquisition Jonathan Heasley. Manager Brandon Hyde also told reporters Thursday there are some nonroster invitees “we’re going to take a close look at.” Albert Suárez is a name to monitor from that group; he’s coming off a series of impressive stints in Japan and South Korea.
“This allows us to give other guys some opportunities and we do feel confident and comfortable with the guys that we have in camp that are rotation candidates so I think we’ll see how it goes this spring,” Hyde said.
Prospects
The Orioles pitching prospects are not nearly as heralded as their position players, but they do have a few candidates who could work their way into the conversation with a strong spring. Leading the way is Chayce McDermott, one of the players they received in the Trey Mancini trade at the 2022 deadline. The Ball State product was named the Orioles’ 2023 minor league Pitcher of the Year after posting a 3.10 ERA and 11.5 K/9 between Double-A Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk.
Also looking to turn heads in Sarasota is left-hander Cade Povich, the No. 9 prospect in the Orioles’ system according to Baseball America. Povich has recorded gaudy strikeout numbers throughout his minor league career but struggled to prevent runs in 2023. Seth Johnson, who already occupies a spot on the 40-man roster, will be in camp as well, though his recovery from August 2022 Tommy John surgery has limited him to just one start above High-A.
Last year’s Norfolk roster supplied two other arms untested at the major league level in Justin Armbruester (No. 22 among Orioles prospects) and Garrett Stallings (not ranked). The young right-handers both earned invitations to spring training, but they’re long shots to make the roster even out of the bullpen.
Free agents
Should the Orioles decide internal patchwork isn’t enough to replace Bradish, who is trying to walk the thin line of rehabbing a partially torn UCL without undergoing Tommy John surgery, a slow-moving offseason has left several intriguing starters still available in free agency as spring training gets underway.
Reigning National League Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell remains the top pitcher available on the open market. Snell’s holdout for a long-term deal of his liking means the Orioles won’t be able to get him for cheap, even if he winds up settling for a one-year deal. The same goes for Jordan Montgomery, who carries less upside than Snell but has a steadier track record.
While the Orioles of years past would never be serious suitors for either starter under normal circumstances, incoming owner David Rubenstein could opt to make an immediate splash if he’s approved quickly enough by MLB. If Elias decides he needs to address the rotation sooner than that, Mike Clevinger and Michael Lorenzen are a tier below the superstars but have shown flashes of front-end rotation production during their careers.
Trevor Bauer expressed his interest in a deal with the Orioles on X, the social network formerly known as Twitter, but his upside also comes with the backlash Baltimore would face for signing a player tied to sexual assault allegations. Bauer, who won the NL Cy Young Award during the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign with the Cincinnati Reds, denied any wrongdoing but served a 194-game suspension before pitching in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball league last year.
Matthew Boyd and Eric Lauer each struggled in 2023 but were productive in 2021 and 2022. Hyun-jin Ryu and Johnny Cueto have proven to be capable back-end starters even as they’ve reached the latter stages of their careers.
Trade candidates
If the Orioles do dip back into the trade pool, at least they know the landscape well. Elias spent the greater part of this winter scouring the trade market for a starting pitcher before eventually landing the best arm available in Burnes. Baltimore has been tied to Chicago White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease and Miami Marlins left-hander Jesús Luzardo, both of whom would command significant prospect packages as players under multiple years of team control.
Cleveland Guardians ace Shane Bieber has had his name floated in trade rumors entering the final year of his deal, though it’s unclear how interested Elias would be to trade more prospects for another one-year rental as he did in the Burnes deal. Paul Blackburn has also been rumored to be on the trade block for years, but Oakland Athletics general manager David Forst publicly stated in December he doesn’t expect to trade him.
Beyond those big names, the Orioles could opt to swap some of their position player depth for a young, somewhat unproven starter with upside such as the Marlins’ Braxton Garrett or the Seattle Mariners’ Bryan Woo. Many teams are facing the opposite problem the Orioles have with lots of pitching depth but not enough bats in the lineup. How Elias decides to address the Orioles’ sudden need for pitching, if at all, will be one of their biggest storylines of the spring.