SARASOTA, Fla. — The Orioles’ top-ranked farm system is so because of their position player prospects.
From Jackson Holliday to Samuel Basallo to Coby Mayo, the organization is chock-full of youngsters who have soared up prospect lists. The farm system is so good the Orioles didn’t have to give up any of their top five prospects to acquire ace Corbin Burnes this winter.
But the club’s top pitching prospects believe the arms on the farm are better than many outside of the organization think.
“I think it’s definitely under-the-radar a little bit,” left-hander Cade Povich said. “I think it’s a lot better than people recognize. It’s nice to look around and know that maybe on the outside they don’t see it, but that you can see it in here.”
Povich is among the trio of Baltimore’s best pitching prospects who are at major league spring training. Chayce McDermott, Povich and Seth Johnson — the Nos. 8, 9 and 10 prospects, respectively, in Baltimore’s farm system, according to Baseball America — have already impressed the Orioles’ brass with their stuff this spring.
“They all have really good fastballs,” manager Brandon Hyde said. “The secondary stuff is outstanding. For me, it’s just the time. They need innings, they need outings, they need to move up levels and dominate levels. But they all have big futures with us. It’s just a matter of time.”
Johnson, who spent most of 2023 rehabbing from Tommy John elbow reconstruction, said McDermott, Povich and the other top pitchers in the system have impressed him since he joined the organization at the 2022 trade deadline.
“These guys are nasty,” the right-hander said.
Kyle Bradish’s elbow injury and John Means’ delayed timeline have likely opened two rotation spots for the beginning of the season. Those are expected to be filled by Tyler Wells and Cole Irvin, although the club hasn’t ruled out McDermott or Povich, who both ended 2023 in Triple-A, claiming one of them. However, Hyde said the organization would like to have both youngsters — along with right-hander Justin Armbruester, the club’s eighth-best pitching prospect who is also in big league camp — start the year with Norfolk.
“I think we’d prefer to have them continue on their development track and not rush anybody too early,” Hyde said. “That being said, you never know. I think more likely they’ll start in Triple-A and be in the rotation.”
McDermott, 25, was one of the organization’s biggest risers last year, pitching better as the year progressed and ending it as the Orioles’ Jim Palmer Minor League Pitcher of the Year. Povich, 23, put up elite strikeout numbers in Double-A and ended the year strong with the Tides. But the two have a combined 96 innings of Triple-A experience.
“I don’t think their work there is done,” Orioles executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias said during the winter meetings.
“They both have great stuff,” Hyde said. “We saw Povich’s stuff last year in big league camp. They’re close. We just want to see how they compete in spring training. They don’t have a bunch of Triple-A experience. They’re both really young. We love the progress they’ve made so far.
“We think they’re going to be starters down the road for us. When that is, I have no idea. I’m looking forward to seeing them compete in camp and get this major league experience.”
All three of the club’s top pitching prospects joined the organization via trade at the 2022 deadline. Elias controversially traded away team leader Trey Mancini and closer Jorge López while the team was in a wild-card chase, and while those moves did hamper the team’s hopes of making the postseason that year, it netted the trio of young arms. Johnson and McDermott came back in the Mancini deal, while Povich was one of four pitchers, including Yennier Cano, the club got in return for López.
McDermott struggled throughout 2022, posting a 5.56 ERA in Double-A. But the swing-and-miss stuff was clearly there, evidenced by his elite 35% strikeout rate. The 25-year-old broke out last year, though, with a 3.10 ERA in 119 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. He struck out 152 batters, and while he walked 68, he surrendered just 69 hits. He pitched even better in Triple-A than he did with Bowie, as the 6-foot-3 righty didn’t allow more than three runs in any of his 10 outings with the Tides.
“I just tried to be more comfortable on the mound,” McDermott said about his improvements last year. “I think I was putting too much pressure on myself earlier in the season trying to be perfect. I’m not going to be perfect, no one’s going to be perfect in this room. I think getting to Triple-A with the automatic strike zone helped me realize that, and I realized people still weren’t hitting it that well. So it gave me more confidence to be in the zone and settle down and throw like I should.”
Povich, a left-hander, has a similar profile to McDermott as both have swing-and-miss stuff with high strikeout rates while also struggling with command. He struck out 118 batters in 81 1/3 innings with Bowie, but he ended the year with a whopping 12% walk rate — manageable for some relievers, but far too high for a starting pitcher. But few pitchers in the Orioles’ system have the individual game ceiling Povich has. He struck out 10 or more batters in three starts last season, including a seven-inning, 13-strikeout gem in Double-A.
Povich said his 2023 campaign was filled with “ups and downs,” but he was glad with how it ended. Over his final six starts in Triple-A, the 6-3 southpaw posted a 3.26 ERA as opposing hitters compiled just a .167 batting average against him.
“I think late in the year, the last month of the season, I started to figure out the mindset of what I needed to do,” he said. “I think that was one of the best month periods since I’ve been in the minors. I like the way I ended, wish I could’ve kind of figured that out a little sooner. But I guess it’s better late than never.”
Johnson, meanwhile, also ended the season the way he wanted: pitching in real games. The 25-year-old dominated Single-A in 2021 in the Tampa Bay Rays’ system, posting a 2.88 ERA in 93 2/3 innings. But he tore the ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow the following season, and he underwent Tommy John surgery two days after the Orioles acquired him. He returned to game action in August, combining to throwing 10 1/3 innings between rookie ball and Double-A.
Johnson’s chances of debuting in the majors this season are far less likely than McDermott or Povich, but he’s eager to see how he performs against big league hitters this spring.
“I’m full go, no restrictions,” Johnson said. “I’m really just trying to see where I stack up to the level I want to be at.”
