SARASOTA, Fla. — Before the champagne was popped and music was blasted, Brandon Hyde addressed his team.
The Orioles were American League East champions after public projection systems predicted they would finish below .500 and last in the division. Hyde, the Orioles skipper who braved the 100-loss seasons of the rebuild, didn’t forget.
“Nobody gave us a chance at the start of this year. Nobody,” Hyde said moments before his players doused him with various forms of alcohol in the Orioles’ clubhouse. “That’s 100 wins right there. … We just won the AL East. Let’s go!”
The Orioles were underdogs in 2023, and that mindset helped propel them to 101 wins, the AL’s top seed and the club’s first appearance in the Division Series since 2014.
They won’t be underdogs in 2024. The hype surrounding the team entering the season is the highest it’s been in nearly a decade. The pending sale of the team from the Angelos family to billionaire David Rubenstein and the trade for Corbin Burnes have caused excitement for the upcoming season to surge. And as defending AL East champs with a roster littered with young stars, the rest of the division certainly no longer views Baltimore as the cellar-dweller from its rebuilding days.
However, that doesn’t mean the Orioles aren’t being doubted. Public projection systems are predicting the Orioles will regress in 2024. FanGraphs has Baltimore pegged for 84 wins and a third-place finish in the AL East. Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projections are forecasting the Orioles will win 86 games and also finish third in the division.
“I’m not even worried about projections or what people think about us, to be honest with you,” Hyde said Saturday before the Orioles’ spring training opener. “We have enough to take care of in this clubhouse and try to get ready for the season. Honestly, people can say what they want or predict certain things. It means absolutely nothing to us. So you can put the computer away. We’ve still got to go play.”
It’s understandable why the projection systems aren’t predicting the Orioles to repeat as AL East champions.
It’s natural to expect regression for a team that won 101 games, especially one that did so with one of the majors’ lowest payrolls. The Orioles play in MLB’s best division with five teams that went above .500 last season, three large-market teams and another — Tampa Bay — that is considered to have one of the best baseball operations in the sport. Baltimore’s 2023 Pythagorean record based on run differential was seven wins worse than its actual mark — an indicator for a team that perhaps overachieved. The Orioles went 30-16 in one-run games and were one of the majors’ best teams with runners in scoring position, clutch situations and high-leverage moments — performances that aren’t often repeated.
But the Orioles don’t believe regression is inevitable, and they aren’t going to give into that notion just because the statheads deem it so.
“You’ve got to keep that chip on your shoulder and keep it in the right perspective. That’s the only way, in my opinion, to win games,” Orioles first baseman Ryan O’Hearn said. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
“I think the greatest thing about this team — expectations, projections, this team doesn’t focus on that stuff,” catcher James McCann said. “That’s something that made us so good last year. We weren’t chasing first place in the East, per se. We weren’t chasing 101 wins, per se. This team is chasing a process and doing things the right way and playing the game the right way. That doesn’t change this year.”
While the projections might seem low, they aren’t doubting the team as much as in past years. Entering last season, FanGraphs projected the Orioles would win just 76 games. The year before, the website gave them a 0.1% chance to make the postseason, which Baltimore nearly did as the AL’s best team not to. Both FanGraphs and PECOTA give the Orioles slightly better than a 50% chance to make the postseason in 2024. Before spring training, a different projection by FanGraphs known as ZiPS had the Orioles winning 90 games — the most of any AL East club. Sportsbooks are also more bullish on Baltimore, listing its win total for bets at 90.5.
One of the main reasons the Orioles “overachieved” in 2023 was the breakout campaigns for several unknown and underappreciated players. Yennier Cano, an under-the-radar part of the controversial Jorge López trade at the 2022 trade deadline, emerged as one of the AL’s best relief pitchers and an All-Star. Danny Coulombe joined the Orioles just days before opening day in trade for cash and was one of the AL’s best left-handed relievers. And Ryan O’Hearn, another cash acquisition, went from being a struggling left-handed bench bat in Kansas City to one of the Orioles’ best hitters.
“If I actually listened to the projection or Statcast people, I wouldn’t be in this locker room right now, that’s for sure. They thought I’d be out of the game a long time ago,” O’Hearn said. “I don’t really care that they think the team is going to regress. It’s really up to us. We’ve got to show up, we’ve got to play every day, we’ve got to compete. We’ve got to find this jelled unit of a clubhouse, the intangibles that you can’t calculate.
“I’m not really worried about what those people think we’re going to do. We have to show up and play the games.”
Coulombe’s path to the 2023 Orioles was perhaps windier than anyone else’s. He debuted in 2014 with the Los Angeles Dodgers, bounced around with four other organizations, underwent hip surgery in 2022 and hadn’t pitched more than 35 innings in a big league campaign since 2017. The projections certainly didn’t expect him to post a 2.81 ERA over 61 appearances and transform his repertoire to suddenly become one of MLB’s hardest pitchers to square up.
“I know everybody is thinking we’re going to regress from last year,” Coulombe said. “We won a lot of one-run games. Obviously losing [closer Félix] Bautista really hurts. But this team just fights. They don’t give away outs in the batter’s box, and on the mound, we just attack. We just know we have so much talent in this room.
Adley Rutschman connects for a solo home-run for his first at-bat against the Red Sox in the first game of the Grapefruit League Spring Training season at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Adley Rutschman rounds third base after hitting a solo home run against Boston in the first inning in the first game of the Grapefruit League 2024 Spring Training season at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Pitcher Mike Baumann pitches against the Red Sox in the second inning of the 2024 season opener of the Grapefruit League play at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Ed Smith Stadium, the home of Orioles Spring Training, is reflected in the mirror lens of a fan attending the first game of the 2024 Grapefruit League season in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Starter Corbin Burnes pitches against the Red Sox in the first inning of the first game in the Grapefruit League Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Pitcher Corbin Burnes, left, takes the field at Ed Smith Stadium to start the first game of the Grapefruit League 2024 Spring Training season against Boston in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Orioles Spring Training camp attendees gather to watch pitcher Corbin Burnes warm up in the bullpen before starting the first game of the Grapefruit League 2024 Spring Training season against the Red Sox at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Outfielder Colton Cowser catches a fly ball in the sun during work out in Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Pitcher Dillon Tate throws live batting practice during Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Pitcher Dillon Tate throws live batting practice during Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Ryan O’Hearn connects while hitting live batting practice during Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Catcher Adley Rutschman hits a long fly ball during live batting practice at Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Pitcher Corbin Burnes holds and two and a half pound weight with his left hand while throwing to work out during Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Pitcher Kaleb Ort throws live batting practice during Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Pitcher Corbin Burnes, right, throws work out during Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Outfielder Daniel Johnson juggles baseballs after batting practice is over during Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Pitcher Corbin Burnes, from left, talks with catchers Adley Rutschman and James McCann after throwing Bullpen at Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Veteran players Jorge Mateo, from left, Austin hays, Anthony Santander are taken to the club house in an electric cart driven by James McCann after they finished Spring Training live batting practice at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Manager Brandon Hyde, left, shares a laugh with pitcher Corbin Burnes during Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Orioles Executive Vice President and General Manager Mike Elias, left, watches Jackson Holliday takes batting practice during Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Outfielders Austin Hays, from left, and Cedric Mullins prepare for live batting practice during Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Pitcher John Means stretches before workout in Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Pitcher Chayce McDermott throws during Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Pitcher Corbin Burnes throws during Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Third baseman Coby Mayo practices running the bases during Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Jorge Mateo, center, and other players warm up on the first day of full squad workout during Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Center fielder Cedric Mullins makes a running behind the back and over the shoulder catch of a fly ball in batting practice during Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Pitchers Cole Irvin, center, John Means, right, and others runs sprints to warm up during Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Orioles top prospect Jackson Holliday connects during live batting practice at Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Gunnar Henderson, center, works out during Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Former Orioles pitcher Ben McDonald, left, talks with current pitcher Cole Irvin during 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Orioles second baseman Jackson Holliday, left, forces out Red Sox Nathan Hickey in the fifth inning of the 2024 Grapefruit League Spring Training season opener at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Executive Vice President and General Manager Mike Elias, right, and manager Brandon Hyde watch pitchers throw bullpen sessions during Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Pitcher Kaleb Ort throws bullpen during Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Orioles Executive Vice President and General Manager Mike Elias, watches batting practice during team’s 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Orioles top prospect Jackson Holliday smiles during batting practice at Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Top prospect Jackson Holliday smoothes his hair as he waits for live batting practice during Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Pitcher Yennier Cano checks out his new WIlson mitts at Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. Each player on contract with the sport equipment company gets two new gloves a year. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Catcher Adley Rutschman, right, watches the flight of the ball he hit during batting practice in Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Outfielder Kyle Stowers throws during Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Pitcher John Means tosses the ball during Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Pitcher Yennier Cano sports a high top hair cut as he stretches before pitching in Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Pitcher Albert Suarez warms up before throwing batting practice in Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Pitcher Yennier Cano throws live batting practice during Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Pitcher Cole Irvin throws live batting practice during Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Orioles top prospect Jackson Holliday takes fielding practice during Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Pitchers Matt Krook, left, and Dean Kremer warm up stretching during Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Orioles pitchers Corbin Burnes, left, and Dean Kremer take part in Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Center fielder Cedric Mullins connects for a home run during live batting practice at Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Cedric Mullins works out in center field during Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Pitcher Corbin Burnes, from left, talks with catchers Adley Rutschman and James McCann after throwing Bullpen at Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Catcher Adley Rutschman backhands to stop a pitch in the dirt during live batting practice in Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Corbin Burnes will be the starting pitcher of the first Orioles 2024 Spring Training game at Ed Smith Stadium as announced by manager Brandon Hyde in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Second baseman Connor Norby practices during Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Orioles top prospect Jackson Holliday locks onto a pitch with intensity during batting practice in 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Second baseman Connor Norby practices during Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Orioles Executive Vice President and General Manager Mike Elias, left, follows the flight of Jackson Holliday’s fly ball during batting practice in Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Jorge Mateo makes a running catch of a fly ball in right field during batting practice in Orioles 2024 Spring Training at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
Manager Brandon Hyde talks with reporters before Orioles 2024 Spring Training full squad workout at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Fl. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff)
“When you’re in a division with really high-spending teams, you know that’s what people are going to say. You know the money generally speaks in that way for projections. We don’t have that, but I think this team is really, really talented. We’re going to be just fine.”
To succeed at the highest level, most professional athletes need to find a way to motivate themselves — the “chip on the shoulder” cliche. A few projection systems telling many of these players the club will regress is far from the first time they’ve been doubted. Cedric Mullins went from a small kid, 13th-round pick, undervalued prospect to one of the sport’s best players in 2021. Kyle Bradish was seen as a future reliever when the Orioles acquired him in the Dylan Bundy trade. Bautista was 26 years old in High-A one year before he began dominating MLB hitters. Anthony Santander and Tyler Wells were Rule 5 draft picks.
“I think a lot of guys play with a chip on their shoulder their whole career,” McCann said. “Everybody in this clubhouse has been told at some point in their career that they couldn’t do something or they wouldn’t be something.”
“I’ve always personally had to have a chip on my shoulder,” O’Hearn said. “You’ve got to keep that chip on your shoulder and keep it in the right perspective. That’s the only way, in my opinion, to win games.”
Winning the division — or even just making the postseason — became a more challenging task a few hours into the club’s first spring training workout earlier this month. Bradish’s elbow injury and John Means’ delayed timeline means both starting pitchers are expected to begin the season on the injured list. Means will likely be back sooner, while Bradish’s timeline is unknown because of the unpredictability of ulnar collateral ligament injuries.
The Orioles do have the pitching depth to fill in for Bradish and Means, but there is no replacing someone like Bradish, who finished fourth in AL Cy Young Award voting last year and was expected to pair with Burnes for one of the sport’s best duos atop a rotation. If the projections are right, these early injuries will almost certainly be a reason why.
“If there’s a team that can handle it, it’s us,” Coulombe said.
During Hyde’s impassioned answer Saturday about his disregard for public projection systems, he made sure to remind that they were “a little bit off” the past two seasons — 20 wins in 2022 and 25 wins in 2023.
A little bit?
“They were a couple wins off,” Hyde said with a proud smirk.
Hyde — and his players — expect them to be off once again.
