SARASOTA, Fla. — Jackson Holliday will have to wait to make his MLB debut.
Holliday, the best prospect in baseball, will not make the Orioles’ opening day roster after the club reassigned him to minor league camp Friday.
Orioles executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias said during the winter meetings that the 20-year-old had a “very strong possibility” to make the opening day roster. Holliday did everything he could to make that reality during spring training — hitting .311 with a .954 OPS, playing clean defense at second base and acting like a big leaguer throughout the process — but it wasn’t enough to convince the Orioles to bring him north with them.
Throughout camp, as Holliday impressed on and off the field, it seemed more likely that he would make the team. Manager Brandon Hyde was asked this week if Holliday looks like a big leaguer despite having the face of a teenager.
“It’s hard to say he doesn’t,” Hyde said.
But the potential reasons to hold him back — Holliday’s age, his lack of Triple-A experience, his transition to playing second base — persisted. So did the reality of baseball’s economics, in which a prospect’s service time is often more important than his performance on the field. By having Holliday spend the first few weeks of the season in the minors, it’s possible the Orioles gain another season of his services before he hits free agency.
Elias said having Holliday open the season in Triple-A, where he played only 18 games last year as he zoomed through the minors in unprecedented fashion, is the best thing for his development. The club’s top executive listed Holliday’s lack of experience against quality left-handed pitching and his position change to second base as reasons to start him in the minors.
“He’s going to benefit from more time in Triple-A for both of those reasons,” Elias said. “He’s going to be a better player and a more complete player when he comes up because of it, and we’re going to be able to deploy him in a broader, more everyday, every-inning way once we get more seasoning in those regards.”
In addition to Holliday, the Orioles also optioned outfielders Heston Kjerstad and Kyle Stowers to minor league camp and reassigned right-hander Albert Suárez, catcher David Bañuelos and infield prospects Coby Mayo and Connor Norby. Baltimore has 38 players in camp and needs to cut 12 more before opening day March 28 at Camden Yards.
With Holliday, Kjerstad and Stowers in the minor leagues, it appears likely that the Orioles’ final bench spot will go to one of the following players: second baseman Kolten Wong, utilityman Tyler Nevin, infielder Nick Maton or outfielder Ryan McKenna. It’s likely that outfield prospect Colton Cowser will be the fourth outfielder and that infielder Ramón Urías will join Jorge Mateo as infielders to again make the team, but Elias wouldn’t commit to any official roster decisions.
“Being a top prospect in the minor leagues does not mean that you’ve leapfrogged your skills over guys that have been in the major leagues for a few years and have a lot of positive experience and a lot of stability to draw from in their production,” Elias said.
Elias maintained that Holliday did have a “good chance” of breaking camp with the team, as he said during the winter meetings. He said it was a “very tough decision” to make and that he and the ballclub’s brass “agonized” over it. But Elias repeatedly defended the controversial choice.
“I’m confident that it will play out as the right thing to do,” Elias said.
Holliday, a left-handed hitter, performed well against southpaws in the minors last year, hitting .296 with a .387 on-base percentage. But he didn’t hit a single homer off lefties and posted an OPS that was more than 200 points worse than his line against righties. This spring, Holliday struggled in a small sample against left-handers, going 2-for-14 with nine strikeouts and one walk. But one of those hits was a grand slam off former All-Star Yusei Kikuchi.
Elias said the Orioles didn’t want to be in a position in which Holliday was a part-time player — hitting solely against right-handers and sitting against lefties, although the majority of big league pitchers are right-handed. He also didn’t want Holliday to potentially struggle to a degree that would necessitate a demotion back to the minors, risking stunting his development.
“We want these players to be as well-rounded as they possibly can, especially guys like this caliber who are on a course to be cornerstones of a franchise,” Elias said. “There’s going to be a lot of development for anyone once they’re in the majors, too, and that’s a whole other ballgame. That’s difficult enough, and it’s even more difficult when there aren’t even boxes you have checked at the Triple-A level.”
Elias referenced the success Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson — the previous No. 1 prospects before Holliday — have had in the major leagues as proof that the Orioles have a “track record” of success in this area, focusing on “completing the development” of the player rather than rushing them to the majors. Rutschman didn’t debut until May of his rookie season, although he was hurt to begin the year, and Henderson debuted in August 2022, just the right time to maintain rookie eligibility for 2023.
However, some teams have taken different tactics with their top prospects. The Texas Rangers, the team that swept the Orioles in the AL Division Series and went on to win the World Series last year, are having Wyatt Langford, their top prospect who has barely played in Triple-A, open the season in the majors. The other two 20-year-old top prospects named Jackson — Jackson Merrill with the San Diego Padres and Jackson Chourio with the Milwaukee Brewers — are also breaking camp in the big leagues.
Elias said service time wasn’t a factor in the decision.
“It’s unfortunate that we have the specter of that to talk about,” Elias said. “I think this is about an organization that prides itself on developing elite talents, putting a player in the best position for his own long-term success and for the short- and long-term success of the team and the roster that he’s on.”
Wong, who could make the team in Holliday’s stead, hinted at the “business aspect” as to why Holliday — whose father, Matt, was a teammate of Wong’s with the St. Louis Cardinals — was left off the roster.
“Dude’s a stud, man. He’s gonna be an incredible player,” Wong said. “Sometimes the business aspect, you know how the game gets ran, so he’s going to be up very soon. We all know that.”
“There’s a lot of tangibles that could be playing an affect, but usually that’s how it goes,” he added. “Twenty years old, he’s got a lot more time of playing baseball left.”
Urías, who stands to gain playing time by Holliday’s absence, doesn’t have questions about the youngster’s ability.
“He’s as good as anybody here in this room,” Urías said. “He looks ready to me.”
Last season, the Orioles made a similar decision with right-hander Grayson Rodriguez, the club’s top pitching prospect at the time. After the flamethrower had an up-and-down spring training, Baltimore had him begin the season in Triple-A, but Rodriguez was promoted when Kyle Bradish went on the injured list early in the season.
Elias didn’t say Jackson was the next man up on the Orioles’ infield when asked, instead noting that the 2022 top draft pick’s development is paramount.
“When we feel that he’s ready to impact the team in a complete and permanent way and not expose him to risk of failure that would involve us shrinking his role or sending him back down, we’re going to figure out a way to accommodate that,” Elias said.
It just won’t be on opening day.