For the Orioles to be aggressive this winter, they will need to expand their payroll. For them to stand pat, they will likely need to expand it anyway.
Baltimore is wading into the offseason waters with a projected 2025 opening day payroll that’s already close to matching last season’s figure. Despite a pair of All-Stars in Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander hitting free agency and several roster needs yet to be addressed, the Orioles are in position to enter next year sporting their highest payroll since at least 2018.
The Orioles carried an opening day payroll of $93.8 million in 2024, according to the Associated Press. They have over $40 million coming off the books for next year following the departures of Burnes, Santander, Craig Kimbrel and James McCann, but that gap narrows because of trade deadline acquisition Zach Eflin’s $18 million salary and the raises their 13 arbitration-eligible players are set to receive.
Of course, the small-market Orioles haven’t spent at the level of most MLB contenders since the late Peter Angelos had the final say on such decisions. Last season, the Orioles’ opening day payroll ranked 28th in baseball ahead of only the Pittsburgh Pirates and Athletics. Meanwhile, the median MLB payroll was just over $142.3 million.
While executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias has signaled the Orioles will have more money to spend under first-year owner David Rubenstein, any major splash the club makes this winter will require Rubenstein to sign off on significant spending increases and raise their bottom line closer to the rest of the pack.
“This has not been an easy task rebuilding this franchise with the backdrop of everything, franchise level, that we’ve been dealing with,” Elias said in his end-of-season news conference Oct. 3. “I think we’ve brought it to a very impressive point, but it’s time to get over a new hump.
“My goal is not to be having a press conference this early next year, let’s put it that way. I think [Rubenstein’s ownership group is] going to be very supportive and helpful in providing us with kind of the necessary backdrop from the ownership level to help us achieve that goal.”
No one is due for a bigger pay raise than Adley Rutschman, who will go from making the league minimum to negotiating a salary projected by MLB Trade Rumors to land in the neighborhood of $6 million. MLBTR estimates Cedric Mullins, who’s entering the final year of his rookie contract, to make the most in arbitration at $8.7 million with Ryan Mountcastle ($6.6 million) and Gregory Soto ($5.6 million) also commanding substantial raises barring any trades or nontenders. Kyle Bradish and Dean Kremer are arbitration-eligible for the first time as well.
The Orioles got their offseason underway last week when they picked up their $8 million team options for Ryan O’Hearn and Seranthony Domínguez and brought back Cionel Pérez at $2.2 million. They declined setup man Danny Coulombe’s $4 million option — a surprise — and their $16.5 million option for designated hitter Eloy Jiménez — not a surprise.
However, those moves were simply the first order of business amid an offseason that has the potential to set the Orioles’ course for the next half-decade, if not longer. Rubenstein acquired a young, talented roster that has a clean slate for the future. Not a single player is signed to a guaranteed deal past next season, giving the club’s new owner plenty of room to either extend some of those young players to long-term deals or supplement them with free agents.
“It’s not easy to figure out how much money you put in,” Rubenstein said at a gathering of business leaders in Washington, D.C, in May. “It’s a complicated mixture of things that have to come together. You have to figure out how to keep your players happy. You want them to stay with you. I’m going to try to do the best I can.”
As Elias showed with his moves over the past year, the Orioles’ priority is winning in the present. He identified the offense as an area of concern following their swift dismantling by the Kansas City Royals in the wild-card round and Santander leaves a massive void in the outfield. The same could be said for Burnes’ spot in the rotation and the bullpen has several question marks even with closer Félix Bautista set to return from Tommy John elbow surgery.
The Orioles have a promising core in place that should give them multiple shots at a World Series title during its competitive window. For the front office to further improve those odds this offseason, ownership will have to be willing to raise the standard for spending in Baltimore.
Have a news tip? Contact Matt Weyrich at mweyrich@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/ByMattWeyrich.