The Orioles’ quest to defend their American League East title begins next week when they report to Sarasota, Florida, for spring training.
A historic 2023 season in which the Orioles won 101 games before falling in the AL Division Series to the eventual World Series champion Texas Rangers preceded a quiet winter in Baltimore. At least, it was quiet until executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias swung a trade Thursday for perhaps the top starting pitcher available in Corbin Burnes.
Aside from the additions of Burnes and veteran closer Craig Kimbrel, who signed a one-year deal in December, their roster as currently constructed largely resembles the one that guided the Orioles to their first playoff berth in seven years. This season, however, they face significantly higher expectations. A World Series title is a realistic goal if they can build on their 2023 success.
Before spring training gets underway, The Baltimore Sun is breaking down each of the Orioles’ position groups to examine their strengths, weaknesses and breakout candidates.
With catcher and the infield already examined, up next: the outfield, which will see many different combinations this season between the Orioles’ mainstays and recently graduated prospects.
Opening day candidates
Nowhere on the Orioles’ roster is the present clashing with the future more than in the outfield.
If so inclined, Baltimore would be capable of rolling out a full veteran outfield this season with Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander starting from left to right. The team could also field an all-26-and-under outfield of Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser and Kyle Stowers, each of whom has paid his dues in the minor leagues.
With Santander only signed through this season and both Mullins and Hays set to hit free agency after the 2025 season, the logjam could soon clear out some space for their young outfielders. But for 2024, the Orioles are going to have to get creative if they’re going to add four or five of them to their opening day roster.
That’s exactly what they plan to do. Elias told 105.7 The Fan’s Inside Access on Tuesday that utility man Jorge Mateo plans to get reps in center field at spring training. Mateo has logged just 94 innings at the position in his career, but his versatility could open up a bench spot that otherwise would have been reserved for a center fielder such as Sam Hilliard, who the Orioles claimed off waivers in November, or the out-of-options Ryan McKenna.
Biggest question
Who is the real Cedric Mullins?
The 2021 version of Mullins was historic. The Orioles’ homegrown center fielder became the first player to record a 30 home runs, 30 steals season since the team relocated to Baltimore in 1954, setting career highs across the board after giving up switch-hitting.
In the two years since, Mullins has been a solid player. He’s put up a .248/.313/.408 slash line over that span, coming out just around league average with a .721 OPS while playing strong defense in center field. Even considering the groin strain that knocked him out for a month in 2023 and limited him down the stretch, the Orioles have to be happy with the production they’ve gotten out of Mullins.
Even so, the lineup would have a completely different look if Mullins can push his on-base percentage back up to 2021 levels. Manager Brandon Hyde tried to lean on him as the Orioles’ leadoff hitter early last season but largely abandoned that idea by the end of the year.
Mullins is the best base-stealer among the Orioles’ projected starters and a strong year from him at the top of the lineup would put middle-of-the-order bats Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson in better positions to drive in runs. But more of the same from Mullins would force him down the order. With Cowser and Kjerstad knocking, it might not be enough to fend them off forever.
X-factor
Santander hit third in the Orioles’ lineup last season more often than any other spot in the order. In an ideal world, he will hit further down in 2024 to get some of their younger bats — and perhaps a more productive Mullins — up at the top. However, that’s no indictment on Santander, who has been Baltimore’s most productive power hitter over the past four years.
A player who sacrifices his on-base percentage for power, the switch-hitting Santander has always profiled better in a run-producing role than tablesetter. His .325 on-base percentage last year was a career high. What he does well is barrel up the baseball and hit it hard, especially from the left side. Fifty-five of his 61 home runs over the past two seasons have come from the left side.
While he would lose a few plate appearances over the course of the season, Santander has a chance to give the Orioles’ lineup some significant length if he can produce out of the fourth or fifth spot. Santander came close to breaking the 100 RBI mark with 95 in 2023, but he could shatter that number with a big season from deeper in the order.
The future
Both Cowser and Kjerstad got their first taste of the majors in 2023. Cowser appeared in 26 games but couldn’t take advantage, hitting .115 with 22 strikeouts. Kjerstad only played in 13 games but did a little better, showing some pop with two home runs and a double.
Though prospect rankings are split on which player sits higher in the top 100 heading into 2024, the Orioles have the benefit of letting spring training play out before they have to decide. It’s not necessarily a camp battle at this point with neither player guaranteed a roster spot, but their performances will be among the most important for Baltimore in camp this season.
Beyond them, Stowers still hopes to carve out a role with the Orioles after a disastrous 2023 season in which he made the opening day roster but couldn’t hold onto his spot while batting .067. The Orioles optioned him to Triple-A Norfolk and he never made it back to the majors.
Further down the line, 2023 first-round draft pick Enrique Bradfield Jr. has yet to see much action at the professional level. His hit tool still has a ways to go and he might never show any power, but his speed is electric. Baseball America gives his running ability a rare 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale, and with his strong defensive play he’ll at the very least make for a formidable fourth outfielder who can pinch run and be a late-inning defensive replacement.